One major consequence of climate change is abrupt, dramatic changes in regional biodiversity. Even if the most optimistic scenarios for mitigating climate change transpire, the fate of many wild species rests on the shoulders of people engaged in conservation planning, management, and policy. Providing managers with the latest and most useful climate change research is critical and requires challenging the conventional divide between scientists and managers. Biodiversity in a Changing Climate promotes dialogue among scientists, decision makers, and managers who are grappling with climate-related threats to species and ecosystems in diverse forms. The book includes case studies and best practices used to address impacts related to climate change across a broad spectrum of species and habitats―from coastal krill and sea urchins to prairie grass and mountain bumblebees. Focused on California, the issues and strategies presented in this book will prove relevant to regions across the West, as well as other regions, and provide a framework for how scientists and managers in any region can bridge the communication divide to manage biodiversity in a rapidly changing world. Biodiversity and a Changing Climate will prove an indispensable guide to students, scientists, and professionals engaged in conservation and resource management. "This is a well-edited book on the implications of climate change for management and conservation in California. Its value ranges beyond California in part because of the diversity of ecosystems is greater than in any other state, and because the generalities derived and questions raised are applicable beyond the third largest of the 50 states." ― The Quarterly Review of Biology Published On: 2016-12-01 Terry L. Root is Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, and Professor, by courtesy, in the Department of Biology at Stanford University. Kimberly R. Hall is a Climate Change Ecologist with The Nature Conservancy and Adjunct Assistant Professor at Michigan State University. Mark  P. Herzog is Quantitative Ecologist and Wildlife Biologist at the USGS Western Ecological Research Center. Christine A. Howell is the Regional Wildlife Ecologist for the Pacific Southwest Region of the U.S. Forest Service. Biodiversity in a Changing Climate Linking Science and Management in Conservation By Terry L. Root, Kimberly R. Hall, Mark P. Herzog, Christine A. Howell UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS Copyright © 2015 The Regents of the University of California All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-0-520-28671-9 Contents List of Contributors, ix, Preface Terry L. Root and Kimberly R. Hall, xi, 1 • A NEW ERA FOR ECOLOGISTS: INCORPORATING ClIMATE CHANGE INTO NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Kimberly R. Hall, 1, Part I • Key Changes in Climate and Life, 15, 2 • CLIMATE CHANGE FROM THE GLOBE TO CALIFORNIA Michael D. Mastrandrea and William R. L. Anderegg, 17, 3 • CLIMATIC INFLUENCES ON ECOSYSTEMS William R. L. Anderegg and Terry L. Root, 27, Part II • Learning from Case Studies and Dialogues between Scientists and Resource Managers, 41, 4 • MODELING KRILL IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT: A 2005 CASE STUDY Jeffrey G. Dorman, 43, 5 • SHIFTS IN MARINE BIOGEOGRAPHIC RANGES Christopher J. Osovitz and Gretchen E. Hofmann, 61, 6 • INTEGRATING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONSERVATION: A KLAMATH RIVER CASE STUDY Rebecca M. Quiñones, 75, 7 • POLLINATORS AND MEADOW RESTORATION Brendan Colloran, Gretchen LeBuhn, and Mark Reynolds, 93, 8 • ELEVATIONAL SHIFTS IN BREEDING BIRDS IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERT REGION Lori Hargrove and John T. Rotenberry, 107, 9 • CONSERVING CALIFORNIA GRASSLANDS INTO AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE K. Blake Suttle, Erika S. Zavaleta, and Sasha Gennet, 121, 10 • SPECIES INVASIONS: LINKING CHANGES INPLANT COMPOSITION TO CHANGES INCLIMATE Laura Koteen, 141, Part III • Perspectives for Framing Biological Impacts of Rapid Climate Change, 159, 11 • EVOLUTIONARY CONSERVATION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE Jason P. Sexton and Alden B. Griffith, 161, 12 • FOSSILS PREDICT BIOLOGICAL RESPONSES TOFUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE Jessica L. Blois and Elizabeth A. Hadly, 183, 13 • HISTORICAL DATA ON SPECIES OCCURRENCE:BRIDGING THE PAST TO THE FUTURE Morgan W. Tingley, 197, Glossary, 213, Index, 217, Contributor Bios, 227, CHAPTER 1 A New Era for Ecologists INCORPORATING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Kimberly R. Hall Rapid climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing resource managers and conservation practitioners in California and around the globe. Since the 1880s, the linear trend in average global surface temperature suggests an increase of approximately 0.85°C in the Northern Hemisphere, and the last 30 years were likely the warmest period in the last 1400 years (IPCC 2013). It is critical that we accelerate efforts to reduce the accumulation of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere (mitigate the causes of climate change). However, even i