ECOWAS 2050: Evidence-Based Trajectories for Development, Decline, and State Resilience

$20.00
by Emmanuel D. Abalo

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ECOWAS 2050 argues that West Africa’s 2050 outcome depends on enforcement, not declarations. The book maps three trajectories: development and state resilience, managed fragility with uneven gains, and decline under chronic state stress. It shows how weak enforcement of democratic norms, court rulings, and regional commitments fuels a cycle of impunity. Leaders erode institutions before crises erupt. Soldiers exploit legitimacy collapse. ECOWAS responds late and pays higher costs, while citizens judge the bloc by insecurity, border friction, and the household impact of sanctions. The book uses recent crises as stress tests of ECOWAS's credibility, including Nigeria’s rapid support that helped halt an attempted coup in Benin and ECOWAS’s limited leverage amid prolonged transition timelines in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. It compares ECOWAS with tighter African integration models and draws a lesson: regional institutions perform best when rules produce predictable consequences and citizens perceive direct delivery. The book proposes a 2050 reform agenda comprising targeted measures against decision-makers, enforceable transition ceilings, stronger enforcement of ECOWAS Court judgments, permanent election-integrity capacity, and an early-warning dashboard linked to specific response tools. It treats governance failure as a regional security threat and calls for earlier action backed by measurable benchmarks and public reporting.

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