International Political Earthquakes is the masterwork of the preeminent scholar Michael Brecher. Brecher, who came of age before World War II, has witnessed more than seven decades of conflict and has spent his career studying the dynamics of relations among nations throughout the world. When terrorism, ethnic conflict, military buildup, or other local tensions spark an international crisis, Brecher argues that the structure of global politics determines its potential to develop into open conflict. That conflict, in turn, may then generate worldwide political upheaval. Comparing international crises to earthquakes, Brecher proposes a scale analogous to the Richter scale to measure the severity and scope of the impact of a crisis on the landscape of international politics. Brecher's conclusions about the causes of international conflict and its consequences for global stability make a convincing case for gradual, nonviolent approaches to crisis resolution. Michael Brecher is R. B. Angus Professor of Political Science at McGill University. Michael Brecher is R. B. Angus Professor of Political Science at McGill University. INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL EARTHQUAKES By Michael Brecher The University of Michigan Press Copyright © 2008 the University of Michigan All right reserved. ISBN: 978-0-472-05001-7 Contents Acknowledgments...................................................................................ixList of Figures...................................................................................xiList of Tables....................................................................................xiiiPART A. THEORY AND AGGREGATE ANALYSIS.............................................................1Introduction to Part A............................................................................11. Conflict and Crisis: Concepts and Overview Findings on Earthquakes I...........................62. Protracted Conflict-Crisis Model and Findings on Earthquakes II................................283. Crisis Escalation to War: Concepts, Model, and Findings on Earthquakes III.....................364. Crisis Severity and Impact: Concepts and Model.................................................455. Crisis Intensity and Fallout: Findings on Earthquakes IV.......................................586. Structure and Stability: Concepts and Model....................................................817. Findings on the Polarity-Stability Nexus.......................................................93Notes to Part A...................................................................................107PART B. QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS: CASE STUDIES OF POLITICAL EARTHQUAKES...............................111Introduction to Part B............................................................................1118. Ethiopian (Abyssinian) War 1934-36, Multipolarity, Africa......................................1219. Berlin Blockade 1948-49, Bipolarity, Europe....................................................14810. Bangladesh 1971, Bipolycentrism, Asia.........................................................16911. Gulf War I 1990-91, Unipolycentrism, Middle East..............................................19612. Coping/Crisis Management: Findings on Earthquakes V...........................................22713. What Have We Learned?.........................................................................262Notes to Part B...................................................................................285References for Part A.............................................................................303References for Part B.............................................................................312Name Index........................................................................................321Subject Index.....................................................................................329 Chapter One Conflict and Crisis Concepts and Overview Findings on Earthquakes I Concepts Conflict designates one of the two domains of politics and society, along with cooperation: the focus in this volume is on the former concept. Conflict is as old as the human experience-in the relations between individuals and within, between, and among families, clans, tribes, city-states, nation-states, and multi-national empires from the beginning of re corded history to the present. Among the many definitions of political conflict, the most precise and concise was framed by Gurr (1980: 1-2): "Conflict phenomena are the overt, coercive interactions of contending collectivities." They are characterized by two or more parties engaged in mutually hostile actions and using coercion to injure or control their opponents. As such, conflict encompasses insurrection, revolution, and riot, as well as protracted conflict, crisis, and war. International conflict is the segment of conflict that relates to disputes between or among