WHAT ARE THE ODDS YOU'LL WIN THE LOTTERY? How long will your kids wait in line at Disney World? Who decides that “standardized tests” are fair? Why do highway engineers build slow-moving ramps? What does it mean, statistically, to be an “Average Joe”? NUMBERS RULE YOUR WORLD In the popular tradition of eye-opening bestsellers like Freakonomics, The Tipping Point, and Super Crunchers, this fascinating book from renowned statistician and blogger Kaiser Fung takes you inside the hidden world of facts and figures that affect you every day, in every way. These are the statistics that rule your life, your job, your commute, your vacation, your food, your health, your money, and your success. This is how engineers calculate your quality of living, how corporations determine your needs, and how politicians estimate your opinions. These are the numbers you never think about-even though they play a crucial role in every single aspect of your life. What you learn may surprise you, amuse you, or even enrage you. But there's one thing you won't be able to deny: Numbers Rule Your World… "An easy read with a big benefit." ―Fareed Zakaria, CNN "For those who have anxiety about how organization data-mining is impacting their world, Kaiser Fung pulls back the curtain to reveal the good and the bad of predictive analytics." ―Ian Ayres,Yale professor and author of Super Crunchers: Why Thinking By Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart "A book that engages us with stories that a journalist would write, the compelling stories behind the stories as illuminated by the numbers, and the dynamics that the numbers reveal." ―John Sall, Executive Vice President, SAS Institute "Little did I suspect, when I picked up Kaiser Fung's book, that I would become so entranced by it - an illuminating and accessible exploration of the power of statistical analysis for those of us who have no prior training in a field that he explores so ably." ―Peter Clarke, author of Keynes: The Rise, Fall, and Return of the 20th Century's Most Influential Economist "A tremendous book. . . . If you want to understand how to use statistics, how to think with numbers and yet to do this without getting lost in equations, if you've been looking for the book to unlock the door to logical thinking about problems, well, you will be pleased to know that you are holding that book in your hands." ―Daniel Finkelstein, Executive Editor, The Times of London "I thoroughly enjoyed this accessible book and enthusiastically recommendit to anyone looking to understand and appreciate the role of statistics and dataanalysis in solving problems and in creating a better world." ―Michael Sherman, Texas A&M University, American Statistician Kaiser Fung is a statistician with more than a decade of experience in applying statistical methods to unlocking the relationship between advertising and customer behaviors. His blog, "Junk Charts," pioneered the genre of critically examining data and graphics in the mass media. Since 2005, "Junk Charts" has received rave reviews from Science magazine, the Guardian , Yahoo!, and Stanford University Libraries. He is an adjunct professor at New York University where he teaches practical statistics to professionals, and holds statistics, business, and engineering degrees from Cambridge, Harvard, and Princeton Universities. Fung is also a fellow of the Royal Statistics Society. NUMBERS RULE YOUR WORLD THE HIDDEN INFLUENCE OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS ON EVERYTHING YOU DO By KAISER FUNG McGraw-Hill Copyright © 2010 Kaiser Fung All right reserved. ISBN: 978-0-07-162653-8 Contents Chapter One Fast Passes / Slow Merges The Discontent of Being Averaged Meter mystery If no one likes, why obey? One car per green, please —Haiku about the Minneapolis–St. Paul commute by reader of the Roadguy blog Heimlich's Chew Chew Train Good film, big buildup, nice queue Twenty-second ride —Haiku about Disney by Anonymous In early 2008, James Fallows, longtime correspondent at The Atlantic , published an eye-popping piece about America's runaway trade deficit with China. Fallows explained how the Chinese people were propping up Americans' standard of living. The highbrow journal has rarely created buzz on the Internet, but this article beat the odds, thanks to Netizens who scrapped Fallows's original title ("The $1.4 Trillion Question") and renamed the article "Average American Owes Average Chinese $4,000." In three months, Internet readers rewarded the piece with more than 1,600 "diggs," or positive responses, which is the high-tech way of singing praise. Evidently, the new headline caught fire. Our brains cannot comfortably process astronomical numbers such as $1.4 trillion, but we can handle $4,000 per person with ease. Simply put, we like large numbers averaged . The statistical average is the greatest invention to have eluded popular acclaim. Everything has been averaged by someone, somewhere. We average people (