The demographic transition and its related effects of population growth, fertility decline and ageing populations are fraught with controversy. When discussed in relation to the global south and the modern project of development, the questions and answers become more problematic. Population and Development offers an expert guide on the demographic transition, from its origins in Enlightenment Europe through to the rest of the world. Tim Dyson examines how, while the phenomenon continues to cause unsustainable population growth with serious economic and environmental implications, its processes have underlain previous periods of sustained economic growth, helped to liberate women from the domestic domain, and contributed greatly to the rise of modern democracy. This accessible yet scholarly analysis will enable any student or expert in development studies to understand complex and vital demographic theory. “This accessible yet scholarly analysis will enable any student or expert in development studies to understand complex and vital demographic transition theory.” ― Arokiasamy, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai “This is a bold and original book which places population change at the centre of human development over the past 250 years. Written in a highly accessible style, this book should be read by everyone interested in the fundamental forces that have shaped the modern world.” ― John Cleland, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine “What a systematic exposition of the linkages between population and development! Dyson, through his life-long experience with strong statistical evidences argues that no other force has greater consequences for development than demographic transition as it influences population aging, international migration and climate change.” ― S Irudaya Rajan, Centre for Development Studies “This work represents a remarkable contribution to the literature on world demographic and social changes.” ― Zhongwei Zhao, The Australian National University Tim Dyson is Professor of Population Studies at the London School of Economics. He was educated in England and Canada, and has held visiting positions at the Australian National University in Canberra, the International Institute of Population Sciences in Mumbai, and the American University of Beirut. His research interests include world food and agricultural prospects, the causes and consequences of famines, the demographic basis of urban growth and urbanization, climate change and global warming, the demography and epidemiology of HIV/AIDS, and the past, present and future population of the Indian subcontinent. He is a past President of the British Society for Population Studies and was elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 2001. Population and development The Demographic Transition By Tim Dyson Zed Books Ltd Copyright © 2010 Tim Dyson All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-84277-960-6 Contents Figures and tables, vi, Preface, viii, Glossary, xiii, PART ONE Introduction, 1 Introduction, 3, 2 The demographic transition – origins, processes, effects, 8, 3 World population and the transition, 50, PART TWO The processes of the demographic transition, 4 The demographic transition – facts and theory, 83, 5 Urbanization and the transition, 125, PART THREE The effects of the demographic transition, 6 Social effects of the transition, 159, 7 Economic and political effects, 188, PART FOUR Conclusion, 8 Conclusions, discussion, the future, 215, Appendix: remarks on data and approach, 229, Notes, 231, Bibliography, 245, Index, 262, CHAPTER 1 Introduction This book addresses the central role of the demographic transition in the creation of the modern world. It considers how the major processes involved in this transition have unfolded during the modern era. And it examines the immense – and often unrecognized – impact that these processes have had on many key aspects of life. At the start of the twenty-first century, every country in the world is being affected by the demographic transition. Indeed, most countries are still experiencing it to varying degrees. The transition is a phenomenon that will continue to transform human society for many decades to come. So an appreciation of its major causal processes, and their principal societal effects, is important. The demographic transition is a global phenomenon – one that, at its heart, involves the movement of all human populations from experiencing high death and birth rates to experiencing very much lower death and birth rates. Essentially, these are the processes of mortality decline and fertility decline respectively. As populations go through the transition, they always increase in size. That is, they experience a period of population growth due to natural increase. And they always undergo two fundamental changes in composition: they move from being predominantly rural to being predominantly urban (i.e. the process