The Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know about America's Economic Future

$20.56
by Laurence J. Kotlikoff

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One of Library Journal's Best Business Books of 2004, Winner in the category of Economics in the 2004 Professional/Scholarly Publishing Annual Awards Competition presented by the Association of American Publishers, Inc. and CHOICE Outstanding Academic Title for 2004 In 2030, as 77 million baby boomers hobble into old age, walkers will outnumber strollers; there will be twice as many retirees as there are today but only 18 percent more workers. How will America handle this demographic overload? How will Social Security and Medicare function with fewer working taxpayers to support these programs? According to Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns, if our government continues on the course it has set, we'll see skyrocketing tax rates, drastically lower retirement and health benefits, high inflation, a rapidly depreciating dollar, unemployment, and political instability. The government has lost its compass, say Kotlikoff and Burns, and the current administration is heading straight into the coming generational storm. But don't panic. To solve a problem you must first understand it. Kotlikoff and Burns take us on a guided tour of our generational imbalance, first introducing us to the baby boomers— their long retirement years and "the protracted delay in their departure to the next world." Then there's the "fiscal child abuse" that will double the taxes paid by the next generation. There's also the "deficit delusion" of the under-reported national debt. And none of this, they say, will be solved by any of the popularly touted remedies: cutting taxes, technological progress, immigration, foreign investment, or the elimination of wasteful government spending. So how can the United States avoid this demographic/fiscal collision? Kotlikoff and Burns propose bold new policies, including meaningful reforms of Social Security, and Medicare. Their proposals are simple, straightforward, and geared to attract support from both political parties. But just in case politicians won't take the political risk to chart a new direction, Kotlikoff and Burns also offer a "life jacket"— guidelines for individuals to protect their financial health and retirement. "*The Coming Generational Storm* is one of the most important (and refreshingly irreverent) policy analyses of recent years. Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns ask what will happen to our economy and way of life when the baby boomers meet the current Medicare and Social Security systems. Their answers, using the innovative techniques of 'generational accounting' developed by Kotlikoff and others, demonstrate how close we are to a genuine fiscal precipice and the hard landing that awaits us. For our current presidential aspirants, the authors also provide some provocative ideas for how to ameliorate the damage this storm will certainly leave in its wake." --Robert J. Shapiro, Managing Director and Founding Partner, Sonecon, LLC, Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution and the Progressive Policy Institute, and former Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs "Among academic experts, Larry Kotlikoff has earned the title 'Mr. Generational Accounting.' His unfuzzy arithmetic decisively rebuts the Bush tax cuts, which are based on the delusion that 5 - 4 = 6, not 1. Read and judge for yourself the specter of our future: too many retirees dependent on too few working-age people. Fiscal imprudence now mandates broken promises later." --Paul A. Samuelson, Institute Professor Emeritus, MIT, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (1970) "Kotlikoff has been one of the pioneers of the new economics of generational accounting. If anyone foresaw the deterioration of the U.S. government's fiscal health, he did. Now, with journalist Scott Burns, he has written a book that spells out, in crystal-clear layman's terms, the disturbing truth about the rising tide of red ink." --Niall Ferguson, Stern School of Business, New York University, and author of *Empire* and *The Cash Nexus* "I lie awake nights worrying about the fiscal crisis described in *The Coming Generational Storm*. This is by far the single most important problem in US economic policy. Every American should read this fabulous book." --George Akerlof, Koshland Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2001) "*The Coming Generational Storm* is a well written summary of an impressive and important body of carefully documented research. The book demonstrates clearly the folly of existing tax and transfer policies in the face of the impending retirement of the baby boom generation. Anyone interested in the future economic viability of American society and the economic problems we are bequeathing to our children should read this study." --James J. Heckman, Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, The University of Chicago, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2000) "*The Coming Generational Storm* documents in frightening detail America's reckles

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