Why do catastrophes happen? What sets off earthquakes, for example? What about mass extinctions of species? The outbreak of major wars? Massive traffic jams that seem to appear out of nowhere? Why does the stock market periodically suffer dramatic crashes? Why do some forest fires become superheated infernos that rage totally out of control? Experts have never been able to explain the causes of any of these disasters. Now scientists have discovered that these seemingly unrelated cataclysms, both natural and human, almost certainly all happen for one fundamental reason. More than that, there is not and never will be any way to predict them. Critically acclaimed science journalist Mark Buchanan tells the fascinating story of the discovery that there is a natural structure of instability woven into the fabric of our world. From humble beginnings studying the physics of sandpiles, scientists have learned that an astonishing range of things–Earth’s crust, cars on a highway, the market for stocks, and the tightly woven networks of human society–have a natural tendency to organize themselves into what’s called the “critical state,” in which they are poised on what Buchanan describes as the “knife-edge of instability.” The more places scientists have looked for the critical state, the more places they’ve found it, and some believe that the pervasiveness of instability must now be seen as a fundamental feature of our world. Ubiquity is packed with stories of real-life catastrophes, such as the huge earthquake that in 1995 hit Kobe, Japan, killing 5,000 people; the forest fires that ravaged Yellowstone National Park in 1988; the stock market crash of 1987; the mass extinction that killed off the dinosaurs; and the outbreak of World War I. Combining literary flair with scientific rigor, Buchanan introduces the researchers who have pieced together the evidence of the critical state, explaining their ingenious work and unexpected insights in beautifully lucid prose. At the dawn of this new century, Buchanan reveals, we are witnessing the emergence of an extraordinarily powerful new field of science that will help us comprehend the bewildering and unruly rhythms that dominate our lives and may even lead to a true science of the dynamics of human culture and history. Earthquakes, market crashes, hurricanes, wars: are these random forces of nature, or foreseeable blips on the radar screen of history? In this lively book, science journalist Mark Buchanan introduces readers to a developing branch of science that looks for order in what seems to be utmost chaos. In the late 1980s, three physicists set out to investigate the apparently inherent instability of complex systems. In a process that Buchanan illustrates by analogy with a sand pile, they discovered that these systems tend to arrive at a "critical state," after which point any random grain falling in just the right place can touch off an avalanche. So it is, Buchanan shows us, with the onset of world wars, economic shocks, traffic gridlock, and other dislocating events--all of which this new science may one day help predict. In clear and vigorous prose, Buchanan brings readers insights from nonequilibrium physics, offering a new way of seeing the "fingers of instability" that poke through the world's fabric--and that in turn make it such an interesting place. --Gregory McNamee An editor and writer for Nature and New Scientist who holds a Ph.D. in physics, Buchanan presents a clear and focused discussion of current subjects in theoretical physics, such as critical state, complexity theory or nonequilibrium physics, and power laws, to name just a few. He begins by explaining and illustrating key concepts and ideas, using evolution, magnets, and earthquake and forest fire prediction as examples. What makes the work unique, however, is Buchanan's ability not just to convey the concepts so clearly but to tie them to events in human history. Readers will be amazed at how much history replicates scientific processes. Buchanan ably illustrates the law of universality, making it easy to grasp how the laws of nature relate to patterns in world events. Highly recommended for large collections and for history of science collections. Michael D. Cramer, Raleigh, NC Copyright 2001 Reed Business Information, Inc. When contemplating cataclysms of nature or human history, we tend to ascribe their occurrence to dramatic causes. Buchanan here presents an outlook opposing that propensity, arguing that tiny, unremarkable events will, from time to time, cause disastrous earthquakes, mass extinctions, stock-market collapses, forest fires, world wars--almost anything. A physicist, Buchanan takes his cue from colleagues who have studied, through computer-game-playing programs, the behavior of systems over time: one such program adds grain after grain to a sand pile in an attempt to explain the ensuing avalanches. The programmers have discerned that the digital pile exists in a pe